The promise of democracy growing within China is something one might hear on a regular basis, but according to James Mann, it is more of a delusion than a reality. In his most recent book, The China Fantasy, Mr. Mann looks at past, present, and future policy of the US Government towards China, which more often than not is based on false truths and misconceptions rather than truth and fact.

Perhaps of most interest to me was Mann’s chapter about the middle class. Mann argues that while most people feel that the fast growing middle class of China will be the proponents of change for democracy in China – in between their Starbucks latte’s and Big Macs, the middle class will be looking to introduce democracy into China – this is in fact a misconception.

If you look at the demographics of China, there are only about 62 million people who are living in the first and second tier cities, which make up just under 5% of the population (this is the middle class of China). It is these 62 million people who are buying Starbucks and whom outsiders believe want democracy.

Mann counters that with the introduction of democracy, there would have to be a political party who caters to the poor of China. This party and its’ leader would have no choice but to create policies that benefit the poor but negatively impact the middle class of China.

The poor population dwarfs the middle class population of China by a ratio of at least 4 to 1, so if democracy was introduced into China, and a political party who catered to the poor rather than the rich did come into existence, this party would win an election by a landslide. This would immediately change the lives of the Starbucks sipping middle class for the worse, as the policies to help the poor would hurt everyone else.

Mann concludes that while it may seem like the middle class will be the driving force to introduce democracy into China, the reality is that as long as the middle class continues to grow and prosper under the current regime, they will support the one party rule rather than a democratic movement.

I highly recommend this book if you have even the slightest interest about China.

I just had lunch with a friend and we were talking about inspiration and passion, which made me think of this great speech by Apple CEO, Steve Jobs at the 2005 Stanford graduation. I won’t even try to do it justice by recapping it, so just watch it!